Here's the situation:
Basic Strategy says we should stand if the dealer is showing 2 through 6 and hit if the dealer is showing 7 and up. Let's look at the returns per dollar to see why this is. If the dealer is showing 2 through 6, the return on the hand when you stand ranges from negative $0.15 to negative $0.29. Their reasoning is that they may draw a 10 and bust if they hit. However, if the dealer does not bust then there is no way the player can win with a 12. It is still a good idea to stand when the dealer shows an upcard of 4, 5 or 6 (the biggest bust cards). However, it is still the better option to hit on a hard 12 when the dealer shows 2 or 3. Nevertheless, there is a suggestion with many of your 16's containing a 4 or a 5, such as 8/5/3, or 9/4/3, or 7/5/4, or 4/4/4/4, etc., even a confirmed basic strategy player should not hit against a 10, but hit multi-card 16's such as 6/3/7, 2/6/8, or even A/6/8/A (no 4 or 5), since a 4 and a 5 are good for the hand of 16 against dealer’ 10 and there is less chance to get a 4 or 5 with more.
You're in a four deck game, with standard rules. You've been dealt a seven and a five for a hard 12, while the dealer shows a three as his upcard. He might bust, and then again he might not. You're mulling it over. What do you do here?
Well, you're going to have to hit the hand, but make sure you take just one hit. Any card you draw will take your new three-card total beyond what would call for a hit in your Basic Strategy.
This is somewhat similar to the dynamic involved in the 12 vs. 2 situation. If you do not hit this hand, you WILL win about 1.5% more of your hands. So why don't I stand here, you ask?
Well, the flip side is that you're going to lose about 3.5% more if you stand pat.
You will push 5% of the time with the dealer. Sometimes the reason you make a certain play is NOT to win more than you lose (because it's not always possible) or to win more often than you would otherwise.
Sometimes you make a play because it will cause you to lose less than otherwise. Pushes are not a bad thing for you here. 'Pushing' the hand means that you don't lose; you just get your original bet turned back to you and you start all over again.
Unless your potential gain can outweigh your potential loss, don't move against the recommended Basic Strategy. Remember that you will at times be called upon to hit a potential busting hand against a dealer's 'stiff' upcard.
If there is an overriding lesson to be learned here, it's not to be afraid to do it if the percentages dictate it!
US vs. THEM Blackjack Strategy Series
An Analysis
By Charles Jay
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